China’s PMI Rises For 5th Straight Month

Mardi, mai 12th, 2009
The  China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) reported on its website  a  53.5 percent Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing  for the month of April.  CLFP’s PMI is up 1.1 percentage points from 52.4 in March and is  the second consecutive month the the PMI is  above 50 percent since July 2008, when the index fell to 48.4 percent.

Last month’s PMI  was also the highest level since April last year, when the official PMI reached 59.2, investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a note, quoting official data.

It sank to a record low of 38.8 in November due to the global financial crisis, but has improved continuously in the five months since, although it only moved above 50 in March.

This « sends a clear signal that real economic activity growth has been improving on a sequential basis from its trough last November, » Goldman Sachs said.

A reading of above 50 suggests expansion, while one below 50 indicates contraction.

The PMI is a composite of  a package of indices that measure economic performance. The survey, jointly conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), covers purchasing and supply managers of more than 700 manufacturers across China.

All the April indices, except those measuring finished product inventory, raw materials inventory and suppliers’ delivery time, rose with most up by less than 2 percentage points.

Indices measuring output and new orders rose by 0.5 and 2.0 percentage points to remain above 50 percent for a third straight month.

The purchasing price index was up 3.0 percentage points to 51.3percent, the first time it was above 50 percent since September last year.

The employment index  also surpassed 50 percent fir the first time since October last year, as it  rose 1.7 percentage points to 50.3 percent.

« The continuous rebound of the PMI shows Chinese economy is on track for recovery. The first-quarter investment, consumption and export figures also reflected this trend. » said Zhang Liqun, a researcher with the Development Research Center of the State Council.

Manufacturing accounts for more than 40 percent of China’s economy, which has been hit hard by the big drop in demand for its products in key export markets such as the United States and Europe.

Source : Konaxis



China’s february PMI increases by 2.9 to 45.1

Lundi, mars 9th, 2009
China’s  Purchasing Managers’ Index,  at 45.1 in February,  shows  that the   manufacturing sector continued to shrink  for the seventh consecutive month, but the pace of contraction slowed compared  with the 42.2 PMI in January.

The CLSA China Purchasing Managers Index, produced by U.K.-based research firm Markit Group Ltd., fell to a record low of 40.9 in November. A PMI reading below 50.0 indicates  a  contraction.

The monthly-released PMI covers various components  or areas of manufacturing such as new orders, production, employment, delivery by suppliers, inventory, export orders, procurement, purchasing prices, imports and overstock, among others.

February data signaled a sharp drop in levels of incoming new business placed at Chinese manufacturers. However, the rate of decline continued to ease from the survey record registered in November. In short, the PMI is inching towards expansion.

The new export orders index rose to 39.5 in February from 36.3 in January and an all-time low of 28.2 in November. The new orders index picked up to 44.2 in February from 39.9 in January, off a record low of 36.1 in November.

The unemployment index broke a nine-month streak of declines, rising to 46.6 in February from an all-time low of 45.0 in January, indicating the pace of layoffs may be slowing down.

Another important indicator is , power generation which in n the middle 10 days of February  rose 15% from a year earlier and 13.2% from the first 10 days of the month.  Power generation is a closely watched  indicator  for industrial activity in China.

Analysing  the China Manufacturing PMI survey, Eric Fishwick, head of economic research at CLSA said: “The rise in the PMI and its orders indices is encouraging but, as with in January, caution is required in interpretation. Manufacturing activity is still contracting only at a more moderate pace than at the end of 2008. Despite the bounce in credit data in January the impact on domestic manufacturing orders so far seems modest: most of the improvement in the PMI’s new orders index reflects export orders.”

Source : Konaxis



China’s Efforts to Succeed Despite Worldwide Financial Crisis

Lundi, mars 9th, 2009

China is being touted as one country where the recession has not been able to show its ugly head. But it would be naïve for anyone to comment that the country is unaffected by it. It has the distinct advantage of having huge cash reserves that it has accumulated from its trade surpluses with other countries. The time has now come to utilize them to buy what it could not have afforded a few years ago. Pressure from the country’s think tank and the urge to stay ahead is making it consider the Warren Buffett policy of “buying low”. That is, it can buy assets and companies at their lowest prices. This includes a large number of resource rich assets in the African continent.

The world’s economic activity is going to be led by Asian economies, mainly, China and India, and this is a boon for African nations, as it will boost their export segment due to increased demand for energy, oil, minerals and other commodities. China’s appetite for all these even during the slow down is substantial enough to keep African economies moving forward.

Sub Saharan Africa is witnessing trade improvement in terms of increasing exports to match imports, and this has now to be transformed into development at sustainable levels. The two-pronged strategy, where China can be a significant contributor, involves moving towards industrialization rather than mere import of raw resources, as well as macroeconomic measures to maintain exchange rates which should not appreciate so much that they act as deterrents to exports, which may become less competitive than others in the world market.

In China, the February figures of the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) showed an increase to 49.0 for the third month consecutively. The PMI is a measure of industrial volatility, and is showing signs of gradual recovery in the country. This, along with the much awaited stimulus package being unveiled by the government, should show positive signs of improvement in the economy. The biggest beneficiary of this will be the African nations, which provide raw materials crucial for production and progress to China.

Source : China Africa